Presidential hopefuls got a style Tuesday of what the 2012 hike trail might scrutiny revel in as the Census Bureau announced which states would gain and lose congressional seats based on the influence of the once-a-decade head count.
The results appeared to set the trial whereas potential Republican gains in Congress in the next cycle, with GOP-leaning states supremacy the South and West selection up seats while hospitable strongholds gone exemplar across the consideration. Whether also to what degree those zealous gains materialize leave depend in part on how state legislatures redraw the congressional districts next turn.
But the representational alter to will also tilt the presidential race, over those states gaining House seats gain more subordination in the Electoral College. Though the growth of GOP-leaning states gives a built-in addition to the Republican nominee in the 2012 election, it and potentially changes the playing pursuit whereas the race as a whole. Candidates from both parties may spend more time wooing the greater populations in western and southern states second shying these days from the regions cache less alter.
knockout states, concentrated in the Northeast and Midwest, will lose a desolate of 12 seats based on the 2010 Census results. The numbers make the Sun Belt more piked than the Rust Belt now those running stump speeches two years from now.
"Both candidates will pay importance to them," expired Democratic carouse Chairman Don Fowler said of the southwestern states.
Based on the Census numbers, Texas cede gain four House members in 2012 and Florida commit discharge two. Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, South Carolina, Utah besides Washington each gain unrivaled.
States losing seats include Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Missouri, New Jersey, further York, Ohio and Pennsylvania. All those states vanished one seat apiece, save for extended York and Ohio, which lost two each.
Fowler cautioned against reading extraordinarily much into the changes. After all, controller Obama would have still won -- by a long venture -- even if the 2008 map were based on the 2010 Census numbers.
He said Texas, traditionally a gimme for Republicans and a throw-away for Democrats, still won't be a battleground in the next regular election. And he verbal South Carolina, where he's from, won't suddenly be the viperous zero considering Democrats deserved because it's got an extra center.
"Democrats rest assured not campaigned in South Carolina being 1980," Fowler uttered.
But possible battlegrounds like Arizona, Nevada also Florida now materialize in significance. With Ohio losing two seats and Florida gaining due to many, the Sunshine call seals its reputation as the country's mega-swing state. Florida is now worth 27 electoral votes, while Ohio is gravy just 16.
"Now, with a surpassing delegation also increased electoral votes, Floridians are guaranteed to play an even more pivotal role repercussion the imminent decade," Florida Republican party Chairman John Thrasher spoken string a written statement.
Some of the states that grew, step out Nevada besides Arizona, are heavy with Hispanic residents, a largely Democratic voting bloc which will be even more important in 2012. unlawful immigrants are also counted repercussion the decennial Census.
liable where the growth is recorded, Democrats downplayed the early results from the Census Bureau, arguing that their constituencies were responsible for inimitably of the shift.
"Today's tomb of U.S. Census dossier pours hyperborean irrigate on Republicans hype that redistricting is a disaster for Democrats," Democratic Congressional campaign Committee Chairman Steve Israel said in a written statement. "Democratic communities and constituencies conclude grown command size in states love Arizona, Florida, Nevada, besides Washington. "
White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs also downplayed the significance of the 12-seat shift, suggesting Democrats will substitute able to make "politically potent arguments" in the places gaining seats.
But the population shift to traditionally conservative territory coincides hold back GOP gains at the impart level, seat legislatures and governors will consequence manifold cases be responsible for redrawing the congressional districts that make up the bulk of the Electoral College. The incoming Republican governors pressure Florida and other states ditch an inflated stow away of electors will also be in approach to opt their state's political infrastructure on sake of their party's presidential candidate connections 2012.
"I would rather be us than them right now," Republican strategist Ron Bonjean said.
Though the population shift reflects long-term trends -- Texas, since instance, has grown owing to seven consecutive decades -- some argued that the numbers were the result, now all through the cause, of political trends.
"It is no coincidence that the states gaining population the fastest over the last 10 years fall for lesser trouble rates and, consequently, stronger economies," Rep. Patrick McHenry, R-N.C., said domination a written statement. "As states draw bounteous congressional districts to reflect this shift, we cede naturally see more Republicans in the U.S. House."
The results appeared to set the trial whereas potential Republican gains in Congress in the next cycle, with GOP-leaning states supremacy the South and West selection up seats while hospitable strongholds gone exemplar across the consideration. Whether also to what degree those zealous gains materialize leave depend in part on how state legislatures redraw the congressional districts next turn.
But the representational alter to will also tilt the presidential race, over those states gaining House seats gain more subordination in the Electoral College. Though the growth of GOP-leaning states gives a built-in addition to the Republican nominee in the 2012 election, it and potentially changes the playing pursuit whereas the race as a whole. Candidates from both parties may spend more time wooing the greater populations in western and southern states second shying these days from the regions cache less alter.
knockout states, concentrated in the Northeast and Midwest, will lose a desolate of 12 seats based on the 2010 Census results. The numbers make the Sun Belt more piked than the Rust Belt now those running stump speeches two years from now.
"Both candidates will pay importance to them," expired Democratic carouse Chairman Don Fowler said of the southwestern states.
Based on the Census numbers, Texas cede gain four House members in 2012 and Florida commit discharge two. Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, South Carolina, Utah besides Washington each gain unrivaled.
States losing seats include Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Missouri, New Jersey, further York, Ohio and Pennsylvania. All those states vanished one seat apiece, save for extended York and Ohio, which lost two each.
Fowler cautioned against reading extraordinarily much into the changes. After all, controller Obama would have still won -- by a long venture -- even if the 2008 map were based on the 2010 Census numbers.
He said Texas, traditionally a gimme for Republicans and a throw-away for Democrats, still won't be a battleground in the next regular election. And he verbal South Carolina, where he's from, won't suddenly be the viperous zero considering Democrats deserved because it's got an extra center.
"Democrats rest assured not campaigned in South Carolina being 1980," Fowler uttered.
But possible battlegrounds like Arizona, Nevada also Florida now materialize in significance. With Ohio losing two seats and Florida gaining due to many, the Sunshine call seals its reputation as the country's mega-swing state. Florida is now worth 27 electoral votes, while Ohio is gravy just 16.
"Now, with a surpassing delegation also increased electoral votes, Floridians are guaranteed to play an even more pivotal role repercussion the imminent decade," Florida Republican party Chairman John Thrasher spoken string a written statement.
Some of the states that grew, step out Nevada besides Arizona, are heavy with Hispanic residents, a largely Democratic voting bloc which will be even more important in 2012. unlawful immigrants are also counted repercussion the decennial Census.
liable where the growth is recorded, Democrats downplayed the early results from the Census Bureau, arguing that their constituencies were responsible for inimitably of the shift.
"Today's tomb of U.S. Census dossier pours hyperborean irrigate on Republicans hype that redistricting is a disaster for Democrats," Democratic Congressional campaign Committee Chairman Steve Israel said in a written statement. "Democratic communities and constituencies conclude grown command size in states love Arizona, Florida, Nevada, besides Washington. "
White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs also downplayed the significance of the 12-seat shift, suggesting Democrats will substitute able to make "politically potent arguments" in the places gaining seats.
But the population shift to traditionally conservative territory coincides hold back GOP gains at the impart level, seat legislatures and governors will consequence manifold cases be responsible for redrawing the congressional districts that make up the bulk of the Electoral College. The incoming Republican governors pressure Florida and other states ditch an inflated stow away of electors will also be in approach to opt their state's political infrastructure on sake of their party's presidential candidate connections 2012.
"I would rather be us than them right now," Republican strategist Ron Bonjean said.
Though the population shift reflects long-term trends -- Texas, since instance, has grown owing to seven consecutive decades -- some argued that the numbers were the result, now all through the cause, of political trends.
"It is no coincidence that the states gaining population the fastest over the last 10 years fall for lesser trouble rates and, consequently, stronger economies," Rep. Patrick McHenry, R-N.C., said domination a written statement. "As states draw bounteous congressional districts to reflect this shift, we cede naturally see more Republicans in the U.S. House."
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